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标题: 【观点争论】罗马以卖图强？ [打印本页]

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-17 22:36
标题: 【观点争论】罗马以卖图强？

Roma strengthen by selling

罗马以卖图强

For Roma, the story of the weekend wasn't so much that they drew against a side that hasn't won a single game this season, but that they did so in the silence of a half-empty Stadio Olimpico. The fans are deeply disillusioned, and the poor results (five points in four games) are not enough to account for the sullen faces.

对于罗马队来说，这个周末过的很糟糕。他们与一只开赛以来还未尝胜绩的队伍战成平局。整场比赛在半空的奥林匹克球场进行。球迷已深感失望，铁青的脸不仅仅是因为开赛以来糟糕的结果。

What truly upsets the Romanisti is the club's new business philosophy, which appears to put cash before cups. Following last month's defeat to Milan, the tifosi hung a banner claiming the club's only objectives were "profits and sales" and a short while later, sporting director Monchi felt compelled to defend his selling strategy.

真正令罗马球迷生气的是俱乐部的新商业政策：将利润置于荣誉之上。在上一场与米兰的失利之后，球迷已经打出横幅指责球队唯一的目标就是利润和销售。这致使蒙奇不得不出来为他的经营策略辩护。

It's easy to understand why Romanisti would be upset. Since Monchi took the reins, both summers the club sold its most valuable player (first Mohamed Salah, then Alisson). Recently the Spaniard also let go of fan darlings Radja Nainggolan and Kevin Strootman.

球迷的愤怒易于理解。自从蒙奇上任以来，两个夏天罗马都卖出了他身价最高的球员（先是萨拉赫，之后是阿里森）最近，西班牙人又出让了两名球迷的宠儿：纳英戈兰和斯特罗曼。

The anger over these sales is exacerbated by a sense that the team, despite a busy mercato, has not really been improved. It's worth finding out if this is true.

愤怒进一步恶化。球迷相信队伍经历了一个忙碌的夏窗并未得到任何增强。让我们来看一看这是不是实情。

At the beginning of the 2017-18 season, the sum worth of Roma's squad was

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-17 23:40
本帖最后由 thunder107 于 2018-9-17 23:41 编辑

At the beginning of the 2017-18 season, the sum worth of Roma's squad was 327.6m (as per Transfermarkt data). This season, it is of 369.2M, showing an appreciation of 41.6m. If we interpret the market-worth of the players as a rough approximation of their quality, the team has clearly been improved.
在上个赛季开始之前，根据转会市场数据，罗马队总值为三亿两千七百万欧元。本赛季，这一数字增加为三亿六千九百万欧元，增值四千一百万。如果我们单纯从球员的市场价值衡量球队实力，罗马队显然增强了。

The protests of the fans appear a lot more justified, however, when these improvements are compared to those of the Giallorossi's competitors. Monchi's incrementation of the squad worth by 41.6m appears paltry by comparison with Juve's appreciation by 228m, Inter's by 203m, Napoli's by 140.7m, Milan's by 128m, and even Lazio's by 118.7m.
但与红狼的其他对手相比，球迷的抗议不无道理。蒙奇球队的增值与其他球队相比不值一提：尤文增值两亿两千八百万，国米为两亿零三百万，那不勒斯一亿四千万，米兰为一亿两千八百万，甚至拉齐奥都增值一亿一千八百万。

Though upgraded, Roma have not kept pace with their rivals, and their squad worth is currently a distant fifth in the league: their total of 369.2m sits behind Juve's 768.5m, Inter's 550.6m, Napoli's 489m, and Milan's 475.5 (Lazio are behind Roma, but not by much: their worth is 339.5).
虽然有所升级，罗马仍旧无法跟上对手的脚步。他们的球队总值仅仅排在联赛第五名（三亿六千九百万欧元）：尤文总值七亿六千八百万，国米为五亿五千万，那不勒斯四亿八千九百万，米兰为四亿七千五百万（拉齐奥排在罗马之后，但差距不大：三亿三千九百万）

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-17 23:54
本帖最后由 thunder107 于 2018-9-17 23:56 编辑

And yet, the Lupi are the weaker team by traditional measurements mostly because they are not pursuing a traditional strategy. The approach adopted by most football clubs dictates that if a team's strongest defender is worth 20m, then the way to strengthen is to acquire a defender worth more than that amount.
使用传统的衡量方法罗马增强不明显，这是因为球队没有采用传统的转会策略。大多数球队的转会策略为：如果你最好的后卫价值两千万，那么增强球队的方法就是购买一名高于此身价的后卫。
Thus, Juventus signing Ronaldo, Milan buying Gonzalo Higuain, Inter retaining Mauro Icardi, Napoli retaining Kalidou Koulibaly, and Lazio retaining Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, are all examples of the same logic: a team is strengthened by buying players better than their best, whilst it is weakened by selling the best already there.
所以尤文签下罗纳尔多，米兰拿下伊瓜因，国米，那不勒斯和拉齐奥分别留下了伊卡尔迪，库利巴利和米林科维奇。这些都是同一逻辑：增强球队就要买下比他们最好球员还好的球员，而卖出最好球员就意味着削弱。
Monchi jettisoned this principle in favour of something completely new, which impatient Roma fans are wrong to dismiss as a simple 'money first' approach. The Spaniard's new paradigm dictates that you must improve the quality of all team-members collectively, and never buy a player above a given value (say, 30m) until the average value of the players already at the club has reached that mark.
蒙奇却抛弃了这一理念，而采用了一套全新的策略。失去耐心的罗马球迷错误的将之称为金钱至上原则。西班牙人的的新策略是整体提高球队实力。直到全队平均身价达到某一数值，尽量不去购买高于此价值的球员。

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-18 00:09
Breaking down the numbers above illuminates this strategy. Roma's three most valuable players are Kostas Manolas, Steven Nzonzi and Alessandro Florenzi, at 40-30-30m respectively. Compare this ratio to those at Juventus (110-100-65m), Inter (95-45-45m), Napoli (60-60-35m), Milan (55-40-40m), and Lazio (90-50-35m) and one important difference leaps out.
分析数据可以勾勒出这一策略。罗马身价最高的球员分别为马诺拉斯，恩宗齐和佛罗伦齐，价格分别为4千万-3千万-3千万。对比这一比例，尤文为（1.1亿-1亿-6千五百万），国米为（九千五百万-四千五百万-四千五百万），那不勒斯（6千万-6千万-3千5百万），米兰为（五千五百万-四千万-四千万），拉齐奥为（九千万-五千万-三千五百万）。一个明显的区别逐渐浮现。
All the other big clubs evidence a very steep drop in value from their first to their third most valuable player, in some cases with chasms of 45-55m, whilst Roma have by far the gentlest curve at a mere 10m (only Milan are close, but they are still at 15m).
所有的球队的大球队对比第一到第三的球员身价都有非常陡峭的身价差。这一差别达到四千万到五千五百万。但是罗马有着相对平滑的曲线，约一千万。（仅有米兰比较接近，但仍有一千五百万）
Furthermore, the mean average worth of a Roma player is 14.2m. This means that Manolas, the club's most valuable player at 40m, is worth roughly 26m more than his average teammate.
与此同时，罗马的平均身价为一千四百万。这意味着马诺拉斯的四千万身价仅仅高于队伍平均值两千六百万。
Compare this with Juventus, where Paulo Dybala exceeds the worth of his average teammate by a whopping 78m. At Inter that figure is 72m, at Napoli it is 40m, at Milan it is 38.5m, and at Lazio it is a fairly ridiculous 80m.
对比尤文，迪巴拉超过队伍平均身价七千八百万。国米的数字为七千两百万，那不勒斯为四千万，米兰为三千八百万，而拉齐奥最为离谱，为八千万。

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-18 00:23
Some of this is the result of market inflation, but mostly it's a systemic issue – similar proportional ratios are found at Bologna, Chievo and Frosinone. Monchi is clearly and deliberately doing something different, by spreading the quality of his players as widely as possible over his collective squad.
当然这一结果部分源于市场溢价，但大部分是系统差别。同样的比例也出现在博洛尼亚，切沃和佛罗西索内。蒙奇明显在做出改变：将球队身价尽量集体横向分散。
Since all these players are youngsters with immediate prospects, the result is that this collective quality rises naturally, spontaneously, with no need for massive injections of capital. As it does, the club's market leverage rises correspondingly and the 'ceiling' beyond which Monchi won't buy also rises.
因为球员均为有潜力的年轻球员，结果就是集体的价值自然上涨，无需注入大量资本。随着该策略的实施，球队身价上涨，而购买球员的限价也随之上涨。
Exceptional individuals who rise too quickly above the team's average value are sold (Salah and Alisson), as are players who lag behind it (Gerson, Maxime Gonalons), or who can rise no further (Nainggolan and Strootman). Since these sales are happening because and not despite Monchi's system of resilient growth, it is quite accurate to say that Roma are literally improving their team by selling their best players.
杰出的球员身价上涨速度大大超过球队平均值的将被卖掉（萨拉赫和阿里森）而大大落后的也将被处理（热尔松和格那龙）而身价上涨有限的如纳英戈兰和斯特罗马也将被卖掉。随着这些出售和蒙奇系统的发展，可以肯定的说罗马队确实是在以出售最好球员的方式而增强球队实力。

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-18 00:42
Whether fans choose to see this or not, the collective worth of the Roma squad is undeniably being raised. Evidence is provided by the characteristic Roma phenomenon in which a player's value goes up even as their rank in the hierarchies of value goes down.
无论球迷的观点如何，罗马队集体价值无疑在上涨。一个现象可以佐证这一点，虽然他们的绝对身价在上涨但球员队内身价排名却在中下跌。
For example, Stephan El Shaarawy and Diego Perotti both went from being worth17m to 20m, but dropped from being joint-sixth to joint-eighth among the most valuable players. Edin Dzeko appreciated from 22m to 25m, yet dropped from fourth to sixth.
举例来讲，沙拉维和佩罗蒂的身价由一千七百万升值到两千万，但他们的队内身价排名却从并列第六跌至第八。哲科身价从两千两百万升到两千五百万，但是却从第四跌至第六。
At other clubs, players who appreciate in value find themselves holding their place or climbing in the rankings, because the increase in the mean average value is being dragged up by one or two very expensive players (either signed or retained). At Roma, unless the appreciation is very substantial (Manolas and Florenzi both jumped by 10m and leapfrogged to first and second place), players actually drop, because the average worth of all their fellow players is rising simultaneously.
在其他的大俱乐部，球员升值往往使他们的队内排名保持或者上升。因为球队的平均值是依靠一两个身价非常高的球员来拉动的（买入或者保留的球员）而在罗马，除非升值非常明显（马诺拉斯和佛罗伦齐均升值1千万，跃至第一和第二）球员的身价排名会降低，因为球队集体平均身价在自然上涨。
It is said that predictions are only remembered when they fly against consensus, so I'll stake my credibility on this: unless James Pallotta or Monchi leave the club, Roma's system of resilient and sustainable growth will establish them as the second football power in Italy within three years.
仅仅在结果违反大众意见的时候，预测才会被记住。所以在此我立下证据：除非帕洛塔和蒙奇离开，罗马系统性的增长将使罗马在三年内成为意大利的第二大势力。
As for the trouble they are experiencing now, it's like your feet hurting when you walk, it only happens when you're going places.
罗马现在所遇到的麻烦仅仅是暂时的。这就像是你的脚会痛，因为你正在走向远方。

作者: victor8219 时间: 2018-9-18 00:56
上面的文章是哪位大神写的?权威性如何?

作者: KOFz1999 时间: 2018-9-18 01:17
我当作他的策略说的过去，卖那英和鲁曼是因为他们的价值已到上限(虽然也没卖多少钱)，那买帕斯托雷和恩宗齐是什么策略?

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-18 01:39

victor8219 发表于 2018-9-18 00:56
上面的文章是哪位大神写的?权威性如何?

是一个网站叫做football italia网站上的blog 作者叫做Andrea Tallarita 是这个网站的top wirter
我只是翻译了文章搬运到这里。

作者: thunder107 时间: 2018-9-18 01:40

KOFz1999 发表于 2018-9-18 01:17
我当作他的策略说的过去，卖那英和鲁曼是因为他们的价值已到上限(虽然也没卖多少钱)，那买帕斯托雷和恩宗齐 ...

我只能把这两个转会理解成教练要求。。。

作者: 兰特马利欧 时间: 2018-9-18 07:03

sunyunfengboy 发表于 2018-9-17 10:48
确定卡尔斯多普上了2场了？恕我眼拙，真没看到他的存在。我一般很少看出场名单的。直接看场上表现来着，估 ...

法律哥你在呵呵个啥.....打米兰那场是先发...而且非常活跃...

作者: 冰封千壑 时间: 2018-9-18 07:34
如果谈权威性，相比较而言，旧闻不联播最有权威性了

霉体发表言论，经常会带有“只负责转载，作者观点不属于本报观点“之类的

作者: 冰封千壑 时间: 2018-9-18 07:54
往往越是故弄玄虚的文章，越是不靠谱，该文章作者错误的以为，罗马球迷以为蒙奇的转会策略是金钱至上的

事实上萨拉赫阿里森纳音斯特罗曼均属贱卖，而球队实力增长最快的球员，通常都实力超强，可遇不可求。这类球员有留下有诸多益处

作者: asroma27 时间: 2018-9-18 08:25
本帖最后由 asroma27 于 2018-9-18 09:02 编辑

有的人真是别出心裁啊，其实再怎么费心发明理论也白搭，不管洗白方法如何翻新如何说得天花乱坠，最后还是看成绩说话

作者: 神谕 时间: 2018-9-18 08:30
这文章吹的，反正吹牛不用负责

作者: 克莱门特 时间: 2018-9-18 08:49
文章里的理论在企业管理里是成立的，HR的重要工作之一就是避免你的公司里出现“决定性员工”，就是那种一旦走人就会对公司造成重大打击的员工。不过这一理论在竞技体育里是不是也成立我持保留态度。

作者: sunyunfengboy 时间: 2018-9-18 09:04
其实道理很浅显，不用那么去大力气分析，如果不卖狼人，纳因，梦琪买的这些人能上场吗，不上场不就贬值了吗，所以当然要卖了。至于这些人水平如何，反正买下来的时候，在各自俱乐部，都还表现可以或者曾经表现可以，打不出来当然是教练的责任了。

作者: sunyunfengboy 时间: 2018-9-18 09:07
而且，我发现对球队标准降低点，你会发现也没那么大怨气了就像我现在已经从意甲冠军到进入前四即可甚至现在我已经把标准降低到了只要拿到欧联资格就满足了。这样的话，就一点怨气都没有了。

作者: CHIVE 时间: 2018-9-18 09:13
文章观点狗屁不通什么罗马在靠卖出最好的球员来提升实力这个观点去跟弗格森瓜迪奥拉说去不把你骂出屎来
总之跌出前四蒙奇老贼就可以滚了

作者: weiky 时间: 2018-9-18 09:29
虽然不同意这篇文章的观点，但不的不说这是个新颖的角度看问题，论坛里能多看看这种文章挺好。

作者: zhaopj207 时间: 2018-9-18 10:28
如果把“强”定义为球队价值的话，那这文章一点毛病没有。但是如果把“强”定义为竞技排名，那就不一定了，短期来说绝对是弱了，事实胜于雄辩。
也许蒙奇并不在乎欧冠名额，对蒙奇来说他的计划可能是先把塞维利亚杯变成罗马杯。这个和田忌赛马一样的逻辑，去欧冠不小心就被虐，还不如去欧联虐别人，要是能偷个冠军回来就完美了。

作者: zhaopj207 时间: 2018-9-18 10:29
如果把“强”定义为球队价值的话，那这文章一点毛病没有。但是如果把“强”定义为竞技排名，那就不一定了，短期来说绝对是弱了，事实胜于雄辩。
也许蒙奇并不在乎欧冠名额，对蒙奇来说他的计划可能是先把塞维利亚杯变成罗马杯。这个和田忌赛马一样的逻辑，去欧冠不小心就被虐，还不如去欧联虐别人，要是能偷个冠军回来就完美了。

作者: 上彬谦信 时间: 2018-9-18 10:50
成绩说话！其他都是扯淡！

作者: sempreck 时间: 2018-9-18 10:53
简单点理解就是人家往高了长我哈是往胖了长

作者: xqcat 时间: 2018-9-18 11:24
这叫什么狗屎理论，那弄23个身价100万的组个队不就完美符合了。换句话说如果队内已经是23个身价2000万的了，想再提升实力就必须把这23人都卖了然后再买23个身价3000万的回来，否则就不平均了啊？

帕洛塔自己玩NBA出身的还会被这套言辞忽悠？NBA哪个球队不是一两个顶薪+三四个中等薪水+一票低薪替补组成的？没个当家球星还组什么队？

作者: 征服地狱 时间: 2018-9-18 12:42
后面那一句高潮了，三年内罗马将成为第二大势力。。。。好有喜感

作者: 罗马飞鱼 时间: 2018-9-18 13:00

thunder107 发表于 2018-9-18 01:40
我只能把这两个转会理解成教练要求。。。

我认为是老板定的大方向
在罗马，不论是蒙奇还是迪佛，都不可能有这么大的权利

作者: baptista 时间: 2018-9-18 13:21
蒙奇卖狼人让我失望，但我相信，只要给他足够的时间，他会使罗马变得更好的。倒是迪弗，要不是上赛季那场对巴萨的3：0，我对他几乎失望透顶（尤其联赛），这赛季的糟糕状态只是延续上赛季而已。要是接下来三场还没有起色，建议快刀斩乱麻。

作者: fmroma 时间: 2018-9-18 18:01
萨巴蒂尼刚来时，也是两个赛季就完成阵容全换血，好像就留了三个人，那个赛季成绩也是糟糕得很

体育经理换了都这样，还得成绩说话

作者: sunyunfengboy 时间: 2018-9-18 22:15
和萨巴能一样吗，萨巴来之前，罗马是什么鸟样，用老弱病残形容绝不为过，可是梦琪来的时候呢，可是阵容鼎盛，日趋成熟完美的一个球队。结果呢，现在被他搞成什么样了。

作者: 罗马红狼22 时间: 2018-9-26 08:40
没有成绩，其他都是扯淡

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